In theory you will most likely lose the pole somewhere close to the middle, or just above or below a middle joint.
In reality it will probably go where you fall against it, knee or head but it when you are drunk.
Have a quick squiz here
http://www.faculty.delhi.edu/hultendc/A ... e%2033.pdf and
http://www.civil.eng.buffalo.edu/cie325 ... esting.aspGood thing about aluminium and steel, there are so many telescoping sections you can sleeve stuff easily if you dont get it right first time. Most places that sell the stuff have the tables from their supplier (Lysaght eg), which are pretty well understood, and probably someone there knows off hand whether what you plan is likely to work. Always carbon wrap it if you were of the mind.
Anyway, if it looks right, and doesnt wobble round too much when you use it, then its probably pretty much right. Low tech is good. If you get too cute something obscure will bite you.
All the carbon will be pulltruded in small sections (often china) or spun/filament wound. Spun particularly for designed special purpose, spars, oars, paddle shafts. Gets phenomenally expensive. Larger sections like yacht masts will get a prepreg cloth laid to a design over a mandrel and baked. Really thats the same as special components, like bike frames, car parts from precision steel molds. CST has some good Aus porn and you can see prices
http://www.cstcomposites.com/tubes-rods ... -profiles/ If its only for one pole you could source a paddle shaft blank. Probably the cheapest form, but its still going to cost you real money.
Id be visiting your local Alcoa if the steel winds up being too low tech, but theres a reason it was used in the first place. Cheap and works. Its failure mode is good too. Get some warning.
Every four seconds, somewhere in the world, an Harlequin Mills and Boon is sold ... Wot ...