Risk

[wayno]

are you a bushwalker? climber? or both?
where does risk fit into your bush walking? or does it have no place at all
do you factor in a bit of risk into your walks or shy away from risky terrain and scenarios?
what psychological and intellectual processes do you go through when evaluating risk on trips, such as a steep climb or river crossing? or when to turn back in bad weather?
how much does experience and gut instinct play a part in your decisions on how to manage risky scenarios
for me experience and gut instinct are now playing a reasonable part in my decisions. although i still debate how much risk i am facing and am prepared to change my decision as scenarios unfold.
I do tracks that have an element of danger in them, but handled sensibly the danger isnt particularly high. but some of the tracks i do have claimed lives and injured a far few when people havent recognised and managed the risks correctly

[tastrax]

Personally, I accept all the risks when I go walking regardless if I am on a nature trail or way out in the wilderness. It worries me that somehow, some people believe they can pass some of that risk to others. As for the rest of your questions - I make decisions on my abilities and my state of health/fitness and desires at the moment in time.

A simple philosophy some would say, but it suits me.

[TerraMer]

My personal analysis of risk has changed drastically since I started solo bushwalking and skiing as a kid, back then I really had no idea even though I thought I knew everything, as 16 year olds do. There is always a lot to consider when going out alone, eg, river crossings, climbing with a full pack, how to get warm quickly at night when it's -10C.
Like you, I tend to use my instinct and turn around, bunker down or find an alternative route if the risk feels too high.
There is always a little voice reminding me that I don't know everything and am not invincible

[Bluegum Mic]

I must admit being mother to a young one has changed my outlook dramatically. I tend to shy away from walks now that have a lot of high risk components ie scrambling/climbing (Im not great with really shear cliffs anyway). I've also had a knee recon in the last two years plus a bad fall in the bush six months prior to that fracturing a bone in my foot and did a lot of ligament damage (both injuries on the same leg). Whilst my knee is 100% these days there is always that little niggle at the back of my mind about how easily I did my injuries. Im getting better though but it certainly has changed the way I go about my adventures.

[bailz66]

I am about to do a hike across falls/hotham in winter with a few friends.

I am planning the trip so the first thing I have done is make everyone aware of the risks that we will be taking by doing the walk, what conditions we would be happy to set out in and the big things to watch out for. There are times when you don't need to think much about risk but there are times I think it is extreamly important. If you are looking at risks the way I look at them is

Probability * Impact = Risk

If you plan a walk and there is a high probability of something occuring and the impact of that occuring is also high you should really consider whether or not you should attempt the walk.

Example

You plan a snow trek for 4 weeks accross the alps (Taken from a trip that was planned on here)

The risk is that bad weather hit at some stage over the trip.

The probabilty of this occuring within 4 weeks is high.
The impact of this occuring is high also as bad weather in the alps can have devistating results

So the Risk is very high. Does this mean you shouldn't do the trip??? No it just means you should do what you can to mitigate the risk.

First off can we reduce the probability??? No we can't change the weather.
Can we reduce the Impact? Of course, first off we are very sure we will get the bad weather so we can

Ensure our gear will hold up
Carry additional supplies
Allow for additional time
Know what to do in what circumstances (Possibly record at what point you will dig in and set up a tent, what point you will continue walking, what kinds of weather you will walk in)
Carry a GPS/EPERB

So now we can re-assess

Probability Very High
Impact Mediam

So you have now reduced your impact, and the risk is now lower. Can you reduce the impact further? Is the risk now low enough to take the walk?

[wayno]

thats an excellent summation of planning for risk thanks bailz
very concise. A great template for planning any trip

[north-north-west]

Personally, I accept all the risks when I go walking regardless if I am on a nature trail or way out in the wilderness. It worries me that somehow, some people believe they can pass some of that risk to others. As for the rest of your questions - I make decisions on my abilities and my state of health/fitness and desires at the moment in time.

A simple philosophy some would say, but it suits me.

+1