El niño & western Tasmania

[Tortoise]

Anyone know of /know where to find out the likely effect of el niño on the western half of Tassie? It was the opposite to the rest of eastern Australia for la niña - drier than usual for the past 3 summers. I can't remember what happened with previous el niños. Any info appreciated. Ta.

[madpom]

Will be interesting to see how bushwalkers with real world experience compare to chatGPT on this.

The answer for western tassie seemspretty similar to that I got for Fiordland NZ last week when wondering the same thing.

"El Niño typically brings drier and warmer conditions to many parts of Australia, including the western half of Tasmania. During an El Niño event, there is a higher likelihood of below-average rainfall and higher temperatures in this region. This can lead to reduced water availability, increased evaporation, and potentially drought conditions. These dry and warm conditions can have various impacts on agriculture, water resources, and ecosystems in western Tasmania, including decreased crop yields and increased bushfire risk. However, the specific effects can vary depending on the strength and duration of the El Niño event and other regional climate influences."

Has AI got it right?

[bernieq]

You can obtain a wealth of data on Western Tassie (& all parts of Australia) directly from the BoM - for example : (zoom in to the region you want to examine, tap on a location for probabilities)
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/ ... seasonal/0

As it so happens, AI is pointing in the right direction - there is a very high probability of it being unusually dry in parts of the west (eg Melaleuca).

[MrWalker]

As a general rule El Nino has a lot more effect on the east coast of Tasmania than the west, since it affects weather coming in from the Pacific.
The west coast is more affected by weather from the Indian Ocean, which sometimes matches El Nino and sometimes doesn't.

If BOM says the west will be drier this summer then it probably will be, but not necessarily due to El Nino.

[icefest]

Overall not much change as far as I can tell:

"For parts of northern and southeastern Australia, including the Murray Darling Basin, El Niño significantly increases the odds of a dry spring season. But in large parts of WA, Western Tasmania and the eastern seaboard, it does not markedly change odds of dry conditions.

https://www.csiro.au/en/news/all/news/2023/july/expert-commentary-el-nino

North-eastern tassie is most affected:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tab ... emperature

[icefest]

But global warming has heated up the globe by 1.5° this year, so bring your shorts and sunbrella.

[Tortoise]

Thanks, everyone, for the info.

[Moondog55]

Doesn't rule #1 apply? Expect the unexpected and plan for both rain and drought [ and of course the Spanish Inquisition] although the Spanish Inquisition part might be rule #3

[Warin]

Doesn't rule #1 apply?

The climate is what the average person gets. I'm yet to meet an average person.

The real weather is what real people get.

[Moondog55]

To quote TJ Keen
" Unusual weather is normal"

[north-north-west]

... in western Tasmania, including decreased crop yields ...

Yes, I'm sure all those veggie farmers and wheatgrowers around Queenstown will be worried.

The west coast rainforests have been severely stressed over the last three or four years. I'm actually hoping for a bad walking weather season this year.

[Letstryagain]

The west coast rainforests have been severely stressed over the last three or four years. I'm actually hoping for a bad walking weather season this year.

I suspect you'll get your wish.
It'll probably be too hot to walk much this summer

[headwerkn]

It'll probably be too hot to walk much this summer

This is what I fear. Not the sort of thing I'd ever have expected in Tasmania. But extended wanders high up on ridgelines away from permanent creeks/rivers are starting to become a no-go for January-February.

[Letstryagain]

Probably extend that to nov-march. This year at least.
Several bushfires burning in the SE today already. And it's just out of winter
Long term dry and warm conditions forecast, I think it's buckle up time kids.

[headwerkn]

Literally just got an alert that there's a fire at/around Mt Ossa - listed as Going, not a Planned Burnoff? And Emergency Evacuation orders for the fire at Friendly Beaches.

Buckle up indeed :-/

[north-north-west]

And with this wind those fires are goiing to be pretty well uncontrollable ...

[danman]

The recent La Nina events have contributed to some extremely dry summers on the west. The 21/22 summer a number of places on the west coast recorded driest on record months. It meant more rain on the east coast but the dominant weather patterns for west don't come from that direction, so the rain didn't make it here.

Predictions seem to be that this year the west should be close to average, maybe a little drier. A close to average year should mean more rain than at least the last couple of summers. But we'll see.

[Tortoise]

Thanks, Danman.