COVID-19 - General discussion

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COVID-19 - General discussion

Postby bobcrusader » Mon 23 Mar, 2020 8:27 am

So I was thinking about a Mt Bogong summit now that school holidays have been brought forward in Vic, camp the night on the mountain. I live in the Eastern burbs of Melbourne. What's the consensus of the forum? Dick move, or go for it?
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Re: Bushwalk during pandemic?

Postby Moondog55 » Mon 23 Mar, 2020 8:36 am

Stay home
Stay home
Ditto
I was going to do something similar but given the current information I am not going to go out.
Apart from anything else and other considerations; if you get into trouble there will most probably be no rescue attempts made
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Re: Bushwalk during pandemic?

Postby Baeng72 » Mon 23 Mar, 2020 9:40 am

bobcrusader wrote:So I was thinking about a Mt Bogong summit now that school holidays have been brought forward in Vic, camp the night on the mountain. I live in the Eastern burbs of Melbourne. What's the consensus of the forum? Dick move, or go for it?

I say stay home, unless you can guarantee you won't see another person on your journey and hike.
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Re: Bushwalk during pandemic?

Postby Drew » Mon 23 Mar, 2020 9:41 am

I was still planning on a nice long walk at Easter until yesterday's new measures.

I'd have less contact with other people driving to the mountains and back and hiking for 4 or 5 days than I would if I stayed home and went to the shops a couple of times, so I figured it was extremely low risk in terms of catching/spreading the virus. But it's hard to argue that it would be "essential travel", even if it would be beneficial to my mental and physical health. And of course there's a possibility I could get sick with COVID-19 whilst in the wilderness. Or roll and ankle and need a rescue, putting unnecessary strain on health services.

I guess I'll be going for long walks in my neighbourhood instead. We're just going to have to accept that 2020 is going to be a *&%$#! and boring year...
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Re: Bushwalk during pandemic?

Postby Baeng72 » Mon 23 Mar, 2020 10:45 am

Baeng72 wrote:
bobcrusader wrote:So I was thinking about a Mt Bogong summit now that school holidays have been brought forward in Vic, camp the night on the mountain. I live in the Eastern burbs of Melbourne. What's the consensus of the forum? Dick move, or go for it?

I say stay home, unless you can guarantee you won't see another person on your journey and hike.

According to Parks, it's OK in low volume areas:
https://www.parks.vic.gov.au/get-into-n ... -19-update
So, what do I know? Nothing.
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Re: Bushwalk during pandemic?

Postby bigkev » Mon 23 Mar, 2020 10:52 am

Interesting thread.

I had planned a trip to Mt Woodroffe up in the APY lands, that's obviously been cancelled. I then tossed around doing the Giles Track again but soon realised that was not a sensible option either.

Thinking that we would soon stop most travel I was up at Little Desert last weekend - didn't see another person on the walk.

I'm starting to think like Drew now, I'd probably have less interaction with other people getting to and completing the walks that I do than I would going to the supermarket at home. However the thought that there is a remote chance something goes wrong and I would pull emergancy services away from more needy people has given me pause for thought. I'm thinking that I might stick to parks close to home (basically spots I can walk to).

Cheers
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Re: Bushwalk during pandemic?

Postby Moondog55 » Mon 23 Mar, 2020 11:03 am

It was the thought that if [ and it is a very big IF] I got into trouble I might distract emergency services from critical case management hat has changed my attitude; not the risk to me and others
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Re: Bushwalk during pandemic?

Postby Biggles » Mon 23 Mar, 2020 11:46 am

Don't go anywhere, for any reason when there is a lockdown in place. This is no drill.
This is an emergency, and irrespective of itchy feet and the desire to explore, it is as much about protecting others around you as well as people who are least able to cope with this terrible virus.

The message not to interact with people and to remain (and have to enforce) social distancing appears to be falling on deaf or startlingly cavalier ears. Even if you go walking in a remote area thinking it's quite alright, you are putting residents of that area (sp. APY Lands!) at risk (how do you know at any time that you are positive for COVID-19? That's the problem, COVID-19 infects "in arrears" — we could all be carriers right now but be asymptomatic until....!), and that's a risk they just cannot afford with their existing wide-ranging problems.

Australian Government advice:
Australians are urged to cancel all non-essential domestic travel, including Easter holiday trips.
Travellers entering WA, SA, Tas and the NT have to self-isolate for 14 days.


Stay home. And get very used to it.
Last edited by Biggles on Mon 23 Mar, 2020 1:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Bushwalk during pandemic?

Postby Gadgetgeek » Mon 23 Mar, 2020 12:08 pm

I think that the big factor is going to be just how close to breaking the medical services could get. If SES and police rescue teams get moved to the medical line, then a SAR event is catastrophic. Helis are going to be busy moving people to care centers, and then de-contaminating afterwards.
Even if the decision is "Just leave 'em, mark the Eprib co-ords and we'll collect the personal effects in a few months" Someone has to make that call. A human has to make those choices. I don't think its reasonable to ask that of another person. I've got a nice and close overnighter, drive-in kinda in the barrel ready to go, and I think the better move is to not. We cannot predict just how stretched things might be, and how much help might be needed closer to civilization. Things have been so slack here that it could end up being a bigger shock through.
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Re: Bushwalk during pandemic?

Postby Warin » Mon 23 Mar, 2020 12:18 pm

Gadgetgeek wrote:I think that the big factor is going to be just how close to breaking the medical services could get.


Hospitals in Spain are now 'housing' patients in tents.. after the number if cases increases by 5,000 in one day.
Death rate of careers in Italy is 10%.

"close to breaking the medical services could get"? :( It is more a case of 'what can I do to help?'. Staying safe and minimizing your and others risk of infection would be high on my list.
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Re: Bushwalk during pandemic?

Postby north-north-west » Mon 23 Mar, 2020 1:47 pm

It's a balancing act. If I had to stay housebound for six months, only going out for essential supplies, I'd have topped myself by the end of the first four weeks. Sorry, but it's not happening. When conditions are suitable, I'm walking. This is not about enjoyment, it's my main survival strategy.
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Re: Bushwalk during pandemic?

Postby Moondog55 » Mon 23 Mar, 2020 2:25 pm

What we need are treadmills and ultra wide TVs tuned to the "Bushwalking " channel, now to provide the essential elements of a walk in Tassie we need to put these in the shower and fill the tub with mud, rotting leaves and leeches and run the cold water while working up a sweat in our oilskins.
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Re: Bushwalk during pandemic?

Postby Baeng72 » Mon 23 Mar, 2020 2:44 pm

Moondog55 wrote:What we need are treadmills and ultra wide TVs tuned to the "Bushwalking " channel, now to provide the essential elements of a walk in Tassie we need to put these in the shower and fill the tub with mud, rotting leaves and leeches and run the cold water while working up a sweat in our oilskins.

And crushed ice/snow maker to give the winter alpine feeling? I admire your ingenuity, somehow I think the illusion might be broken when you look to the left or right and see the porcelain throne. :D
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Re: Bushwalk during pandemic?

Postby Moondog55 » Mon 23 Mar, 2020 2:47 pm

New waterproof wallpaper?
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Re: Bushwalk during pandemic?

Postby Son of a Beach » Mon 23 Mar, 2020 3:11 pm

Moondog55 wrote:What we need are treadmills and ultra wide TVs tuned to the "Bushwalking " channel, now to provide the essential elements of a walk in Tassie we need to put these in the shower and fill the tub with mud, rotting leaves and leeches and run the cold water while working up a sweat in our oilskins.


There's a bit more to it than that...
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Re: Bushwalk during pandemic?

Postby Baeng72 » Mon 23 Mar, 2020 3:54 pm

I'm reading that folks in QLD are being told to stay in their suburb.
If that happens down south, then it's Plenty Gorge park for me, and the only high country I'll get to visit is Kinglake National Park.
Mason's falls circuit, here I come (for the nth time)!
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Re: Bushwalk during pandemic?

Postby MrWalker » Mon 23 Mar, 2020 4:42 pm

north-north-west wrote:It's a balancing act. If I had to stay housebound for six months, only going out for essential supplies, I'd have topped myself by the end of the first four weeks. Sorry, but it's not happening. When conditions are suitable, I'm walking. This is not about enjoyment, it's my main survival strategy.

I agree that Bushwalking is an essential activity.

What has been lost in all the advice about not transmitting the disease between ourselves is Stay Healthy.
You need to exercise and keep fit to keep your immune system functioning and avoid any other illness.

Since they have closed gyms and swimming pools, and most team sport is cancelled there is not much left but to go walking or jogging.
Clearly, if you live in the same house as someone else there is no harm in going bushwalking with them, but possibly avoid club walks.

If you think Mt Bogong (or anywhere else) will have less than 4 sq m per person then stay away, but if it won't be too crowded then go ahead, it's good for you.
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Re: Bushwalk during pandemic?

Postby msrlo » Mon 23 Mar, 2020 6:01 pm

Not sure why you put it up, you were always going to be drilled about it. just do it, what 's the difference in going to the supermarket or cafe or butchers.
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Re: Bushwalk during pandemic?

Postby crollsurf » Mon 23 Mar, 2020 6:12 pm

msrlo wrote: just do it, what 's the difference in going to the supermarket or cafe or butchers.


Exactly but I fear they'll close the parks anyway.

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Re: Bushwalk during pandemic?

Postby MrWalker » Mon 23 Mar, 2020 6:41 pm

crollsurf wrote:
msrlo wrote: just do it, what 's the difference in going to the supermarket or cafe or butchers.


Exactly but I fear they'll close the parks anyway.

Until they do I suggest you go while you can, but avoid any parks that might be more popular than Bondi Beach.
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Re: Bushwalk during pandemic?

Postby Neo » Mon 23 Mar, 2020 6:55 pm

Get out of town!

Do the walk man, its safer in the bush.

;)
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Re: Bushwalk during pandemic?

Postby Baeng72 » Mon 23 Mar, 2020 10:11 pm

msrlo wrote:Not sure why you put it up, you were always going to be drilled about it. just do it, what 's the difference in going to the supermarket or cafe or butchers.

No one's drilled anyone. People are answering a question which I think was a good one to ask.
The difference is moving from an area potentially with the virus to an area without.
We're in an information vacuum.
Nobody knows what's the appropriate level of caution.
If someone says the do, they're full of it.
For most people this will do nothing. For some it will kill them.
How do you know if your interaction with someone will cause the first or the second?

I'm not saying what to do. I have no 'god-like' view. Earlier I said no, but some good arguments have been presented for yes.

I think If I drove up to the Grampians tomorrow for example, without stopping in Halls Gap, and walked Mt. Difficult, or The Fortress circuit, and came across nobody, or just 'social distanced' anybody I came across, I'd do no damage.
I reckon it's the journey to and from that will cause more interaction, or potential infection when you stop for petrol or food.
Maybe just take a jerry can full of fuel from your local petrol station and snacks, presumably where everybody has the same level of exposure like you, and don't stop driving there and back at places where people congregate.
If you're gonna do the trip, then avoid people along the way.
Of course, none of my half-arse thoughts take into account the possibility that you'll need to call on the stretched health system if you get injured. But that's pretty low probability walking....
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Re: Bushwalk during pandemic?

Postby slparker » Tue 24 Mar, 2020 6:47 am

The problem is that the picture we have of the pandemic inAustralia is a week old because transmission takes a week (on average) to show symptoms. So you might have covid-19 and not know for a week.
What the government is trying to do, in order to limit deaths from the disease, is to contain it in areas of high incidence and from going to areas of low incidence. Melbourne looks like low incidence on Mar 24 2020 but it isn't because the people who show signs today were probably infected a week ago have probably infected another 2.5 people, and those people have probably infected another 1 or 2 more as of yesterday. The rates are exponential not linear.
That is a big problem for Melbourne.

But NE Victoria has proportionally less ICU beds and proportionally less infections. We are preparing for the likely influx of severely ill right now in NE Victoria and the statistics of what we are facing makes my mouth go dry. So we don't want a traveller from melbourne coming to Mt Bogong with Covid-19 and infecting someone who sells you fuel, someone who serves you at the supermarket at myrtleford or, if you hit a roo on the way home, the tow truck driver. Because flattening the infection curve in NE Victoria is desperately important.

AS MD has intimated; in the unlikely, but plausible, circumstance you do get a bit chilly on top of Mt Bogong or twist your ankle you might also divert a flight or ambulance that might be taking someone to and from limited ICU beds in Wangaratta or Albury.

Yes, being told you can't travel is anathema to bushwalkers but if you do so it is ultimately a selfish action.

It is true that you probably won't transmit the disease if you are careful and no unexpected incidence befalls you. But it is also true that, in principle, people travelling from an area of high incidence of disease to an area of low incidence transmits Covid-19. And it is true that in coming months we expect the hospitals in NE Victoria to be inundated with really sick people and flattening the peak of presentations is really important to those people in NE Victoria who are most vulnerable.

Obviously, or maybe not so obviously, we have to get out and exercise but we need to understand that we might be infected without knowing it and travelling to areas where people have less infection rates has potentially severe consequences. Probably not for you, though. So your decision has to be measured and not in the spirit of '*&%$#! the government' or 'i am not sick and I will be careful.' Personally I am grappling with the same questions - how far do I go when I go for a walk in the coming months?


Addit: the 'you' is metaphorical, not meant for the OP or anyone in particular.
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Re: Bushwalk during pandemic?

Postby Warin » Tue 24 Mar, 2020 7:37 am

UK Doctors and Nurses appeal for people to stay at home ..

"If you choose to stay at home, you will save lives," say healthcare professionals from the Belfast Trust respiratory team in a video that has been widely shared on social media.

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-northern ... peal-to-uk
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Re: Bushwalk during pandemic?

Postby Zapruda » Tue 24 Mar, 2020 11:58 am

I'm going to put my moderator hat on and remind everyone of rule 26

26. This website must not be used in any way which contravenes Australian law (including posting spam) or in any way which encourages others to break the law, or to breach the regulations of any land authority or management (eg, government, PWS, private land owner).

The discussion is fine to continue but can we all please avoid saying things like "get out of town" and "just do it, what 's the difference in going to the supermarket or cafe or butchers".

The whole situation is a bit vague right now and moderators share many of the same concerns, ideas and views as you all but we need to be as responsible and as forward thinking as possible.

Thanks everyone
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Re: Bushwalk during pandemic?

Postby Baeng72 » Tue 24 Mar, 2020 12:29 pm

Zapruda wrote:I'm going to put my moderator hat on and remind everyone of rule 26

26. This website must not be used in any way which contravenes Australian law (including posting spam) or in any way which encourages others to break the law, or to breach the regulations of any land authority or management (eg, government, PWS, private land owner).

The discussion is fine to continue but can we all please avoid saying things like "get out of town" and "just do it, what 's the difference in going to the supermarket or cafe or butchers".

The whole situation is a bit vague right now and moderators share many of the same concerns, ideas and views as you all but we need to be as responsible and as forward thinking as possible.

Thanks everyone

As things stand now, in Victoria, there's no restriction in driving to a National parks, except those closed for Bushfires or because of the large gathering of people rules(Tidal river camping, Twelve Apostles, McKenzie Falls, etc). Petrol stations are open as an essential service. Supermarkets likewise. There's nothing illegal in intrastate travel. Whether it's wise, and could bring repercussions from Govt, clamping down is another matter. Some people will do this, which is why I reckon they should buy extra food and petrol so they don't stop along the way if possible. Damage minimization.
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Re: Bushwalk during pandemic?

Postby GBW » Tue 24 Mar, 2020 12:33 pm

^^^ If you want to minimise damage stay home
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Re: Bushwalk during pandemic?

Postby Neo » Tue 24 Mar, 2020 1:23 pm

I am 'homeless by choice'. Now also unemployed technically. My not-so-unique situation already puts me out car camping (I notice that quite a lot of people live in their vehicles!)

The advice is to stay home and not congregate. One could also go bush to comply with social distancing guidelines IMO.

Good travelling points above, especially to avoid contact if coming from a city to a smaller community.

Should I travel 400km to visit my 76yo mother. Both GP and mechanic appointments are booked there, essential to my wellbeing... Also needing to swap over to some winter gear pretty soon.
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Re: Bushwalk during pandemic?

Postby Moondog55 » Tue 24 Mar, 2020 1:59 pm

That's a whole can of worms on its own Neo There must be thousands of Grey Nomads out there who really do not have a fixed address
I think you have to be sensible about things and if you feel this is essential travel then adopt strategies that allow you to travel safely.
People here seem to be split into two distinct groups, those adopting and complying and those who seem to NGAF, the dilligaff people also seem to be split into two subgroups, old folks having an end of the world party and those on the lower SE scale who really do not have a spare F to give. I give it a week until we shut down totally if people fail to act in a responsible manner
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Re: Bushwalk during pandemic?

Postby Biggles » Tue 24 Mar, 2020 3:16 pm

Moondog55 wrote:That's a whole can of worms on its own Neo There must be thousands of Grey Nomads out there who really do not have a fixed address



Yes, there are in the NT presently, and doubtless en route from all directions, but they will have a hard time going anywhere now. The Ghan is out until the end of May. It is a difficult thing for nomads to manage being older, often having less physical mobility and health problems which will only be dramatically exacerbated (and absolutely imperil the smaller medical facilities in isolated Australia) if they should be exposed to COVID-19. At the other extreme there are a few instances of "Oh, that can't happen to me, 'cause I'm young and fit, ya know!?". The message is much harder to get through to this cohort (international travellers and those who just do not care to listen). There are a few GNOMs based in Alice Springs, more still staying put around Devil's Marbles (very remote, around 460km I think). Late May is the usual time when GNOMs from the southern States hit the road en masse for the more inviting, warmer climes of the central and far northern States. We won't see any of that this year, at least not in the usual prolific numbers. We cannot go crystal ball-gazing into the future; this crisis can only be taken one day at a time, and each day is bringing even more terrible news.

The NT is not accepting any through-travellers other than returning residents at this time, and it has the lowest confirmed rate of COVID-19 diagnoses; that's good (but also because of its greatly dispersed population), but to quote a wisened sage: "It's an all too human frailty to suppose a favourable wind will blow forever."
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