East Gippsland Fires

[legend]

The Alpine Road between Bruthen and Ensay is now closed for the next week or so (as of 23 December) due to the extreme fires.
The fires have extended rapidly in size and even the fire crews are not permitted to take this road.
When the fire has finally passed through, then the experts will be falling any suspect tree and this is expected to take between one and two weeks.
This means those planning to travel from Bairnsdale through to Omeo and beyond need to find another way.

[Xplora]

If you don't mind a bit of dirt then Dargo High Plains Road is open and no fires near it. I am seeing a huge drop in fire intensity overnight but it is certainly not over. The fires seems to have crossed the G.A.R. in a number of places but still active just north of Bruthen along the road. I would be surprised if the road opened in a week but it is a major link so there will be plenty of resources. More hot weather on the way.

[legend]

I've just received from the CFA a few minutes ago (12:15pm, 29 Dec, 2019)
Everyone in East Gippsland must leave the area today due to the fire danger forecast for tomorrow.

Full info here: https://go.vic.gov.au/JYsnt6

Visitors to East Gippsland:
• If you are visiting East Gippsland – you must leave today - Sunday 29 December and stay away on Monday 30 December.
• You are in danger if you are in the area as follows - in the high country from Omeo to Bonang – all the way south through to the coast between east of Bairnsdale to Cann River.
• If you don’t leave today, road closures are likely to mean you are unable to get home.
• No one should be in remote forest areas in East Gippsland today and Monday. This includes anyone who is camping, driving, biking or walking in parks or forests.
• It is not possible to provide support and aid to all the visitors currently in the East Gippsland region.

East Gippsland residents:
• If you live in East Gippsland now is the time to enact your fire plan.
• Where possible, move animals and livestock to safer locations.
• You need to move to a safer place, outside of East Gippsland, today as the risk of the fires becoming uncontrollable starts early Monday morning.
• Stay with friends or family outside the area.
• Stay very aware of messaging - and if you choose to leave do not delay
• Do not rely on firefighting crews being able to protect you and your property
• If you leave -register with Register.Find.Reunite online: register.redcross.org.au – East Gippsland fires.
• People who are in far East Gippsland, including Cann River and Mallacoota, should consider what they will do if the Princes Highway is shut and they are isolated until the road can be reopened.

[Xplora]

I've just received from the CFA a few minutes ago (12:15pm, 29 Dec, 2019)
Everyone in East Gippsland must leave the area today due to the fire danger forecast for tomorrow.

Full info here: https://go.vic.gov.au/JYsnt6

Visitors to East Gippsland:
• If you are visiting East Gippsland – you must leave today - Sunday 29 December and stay away on Monday 30 December.
• You are in danger if you are in the area as follows - in the high country from Omeo to Bonang – all the way south through to the coast between east of Bairnsdale to Cann River.
• If you don’t leave today, road closures are likely to mean you are unable to get home.
• No one should be in remote forest areas in East Gippsland today and Monday. This includes anyone who is camping, driving, biking or walking in parks or forests.
• It is not possible to provide support and aid to all the visitors currently in the East Gippsland region.

East Gippsland residents:
• If you live in East Gippsland now is the time to enact your fire plan.
• Where possible, move animals and livestock to safer locations.
• You need to move to a safer place, outside of East Gippsland, today as the risk of the fires becoming uncontrollable starts early Monday morning.
• Stay with friends or family outside the area.
• Stay very aware of messaging - and if you choose to leave do not delay
• Do not rely on firefighting crews being able to protect you and your property
• If you leave -register with Register.Find.Reunite online: register.redcross.org.au – East Gippsland fires.
• People who are in far East Gippsland, including Cann River and Mallacoota, should consider what they will do if the Princes Highway is shut and they are isolated until the road can be reopened.

Got the same messaged just now as well. Mobile phone reception is intermittently out so I would not count on messages getting through anyway. Messages like these have wound people up. Some are truly scared. The trouble with sending these messages out regularly is they will have less effect each time nothing happens and cause anxiety to those already with a nervous disposition.

[Xplora]

If all the state gets a message like this then where do we all go? Sydney? Adelaide?

[stry]

Deleted.

[tastrax]

I have no issue with these types of warnings. I hate to say this, but many folks have absolutely no idea how fast and furious a fire can be under the forecast conditions. They might see it on the news and go WOW! but think it will never happen to them. When conditions get too bad then firefighters will be removed and there will be no support for those remaining. Getting out is a great strategy.

Warning fatigue is another matter and is discussed regularly. To me, the above message is appropriate advice under the forecast conditions. People can ignore it but they have been given the best advice.

Maybe VIC should release their predicted boundaries under tomorrows conditions...like NSW did.

[highercountry]

Maybe VIC should release their predicted boundaries under tomorrows conditions...like NSW did

They have.
https://files-em.em.vic.gov.au/public/CommNews/Community-Newletters/20191229_1130_Public_Information_East_Gippsland_Potential_Impact_A3.pdf?v=201912291144

In my opinion, given the impending dire circumstances, the warnings are quite appropriate.
The authorities are urging everyone within the boundary to leave the area by 9.00am tomorrow. It is a huge area.

[tastrax]

I meant something like a Phoenix Prediction - https://www.communitybushfireconnection ... apid-fire/

I think in the future the public will get better at accepting these warnings when they see what the models predict. They also need to understand that things can change rapidly so these predictions will always get refined, often on a daily basis. As work is done to verify predictions against actual impacts the models will get better and better.

That 'potential impact zone' may be based on a few scenarios but still good advice.

[peregrinator]

If all the state gets a message like this then where do we all go? Sydney? Adelaide?

Or perhaps Canberra? Then hang about for a while. Six weeks from now, federal parliament will commence sitting for 2020. You could ask your "representatives" about all of the issues relating to bushfires.

[neilmny]

...........Messages like these have wound people up. Some are truly scared. The trouble with sending these messages out regularly is they will have less effect each time nothing happens and cause anxiety to those already with a nervous disposition.

It will become like the boy who cried wolf. Last night there was about 10 stern faces on the announcement made on TV and it gave the impression that the end of the world was near. The fire danger is extreme not catastrophic. I am not belittling the seriousness of the situation or the seriousness of the bushfire risk. Can't help thinking a lot of *&%$#! covering is going on at the expense of creating a lot of fear.

[tastrax]

Can't help thinking a lot of *&%$#! covering is going on ......

Depends if its your *&%$#!

[neilmny]

The cry wolf issue is the biggy for me Phil. A friend travelling from Bendigo to Eildon today was absolutely freaked out about the risk and it was all created by the over the top treatment on the media. There was and is at this stage nothing in the area that they are travelling. It won't take to much of this before people just switch off. That is the real danger...............well at least the authorities will have there *&^%$#@! covered by a we told you so statement.

[highercountry]

As an East Gippsland resident I can assure anybody that there has been no fear-mongering, crying wolf, nor over the top public messaging from the management authorities.
In the last 48 hours I have had 2 emergency text warnings, entirely reasonable given the circumstances There has been no panic. Fear yes, justified in this situation.
The text evacuation warnings achieved the desired result of sending thousands of holiday makers home.
A fire of this scale can't be played-down in the severity of warnings and it has to be made resoundingly clear how dangerous it is.
There is a large sea/tree change and retiree, formerly urbanised community in E.Gipps with little if any wildfire experience. They must be informed of the fire's magnitude.
I have nothing but praise and gratitude for the information provided by ABC Radio, the VicEmerg app and website, the CFA and Police.

[tastrax]

The cry wolf issue is the biggy for me Phil.

Its an issue for everyone neilmny. Fire authorities are very aware of the complacency that sets in over time in campaign fires. Its a fine balance between giving adequate warning, and last minute orders when the $%^& hits the fan and something blows up. They wont win because it very quickly tips between the public saying we got no warning and we are sick of the warnings!

People love seeing the wildfires on Television until its them with a *&^%$#! weak garden house and a wall of flames thinking they will stop a wildfire. All our attitudes need to change on how we all deal with fires.

https://www.bnhcrc.com.au/news/2019/the ... ncy-all-us

It was a revelation to fire agencies to learn that many people neither heard or understood their fire warnings and information.

[neilmny]

.........People love seeing the wildfires on Television...........

I live in a bushfire danger zone which is why I want the real story not something over blown.
If there are people who really love seeing wildfires then our society is truly #$%^*@#$.
Maybe the inner city chai and latte sippers safely located miles from danger get a thrill but no one living in a bushfire risk zone, unless mentally disturbed, would love seeing a wild fire.

[Xplora]

As an East Gippsland resident I can assure anybody that there has been no fear-mongering, crying wolf, nor over the top public messaging from the management authorities.
In the last 48 hours I have had 2 emergency text warnings, entirely reasonable given the circumstances There has been no panic. Fear yes, justified in this situation.
The text evacuation warnings achieved the desired result of sending thousands of holiday makers home.
A fire of this scale can't be played-down in the severity of warnings and it has to be made resoundingly clear how dangerous it is.
There is a large sea/tree change and retiree, formerly urbanised community in E.Gipps with little if any wildfire experience. They must be informed of the fire's magnitude.
I have nothing but praise and gratitude for the information provided by ABC Radio, the VicEmerg app and website, the CFA and Police.

My inlaws arrived yesterday from Metung and they tell me there has been plenty of fear mongering by local fire authorities. They didn't leave because of the warnings. It is our usual NYE thing. I am 100% with Neil on this. Give the facts in a rational and calm manner. I am fine with warnings but I actually consider some of these to be putting people at risk. Lots of 'too late to leave' messages and 'seek shelter inside' without cause or when there are plenty of safe exits. It is still safe to leave Mallacoota but they have been told it isn't for more than a day. Anxious and scared people make less rational decisions. I am glad I don't have TV as it would really annoy me to watch people preaching armageddon.

[sambar358]

I agree 100% with highercountry.....we had around 30,000 tourists here a couple of days ago and many of them camping/staying right in the path of the fire. They had to get the message very clearly that it was dangerous to stay and it was time to leave.....many did. I'm a local here too and yesterday was a "welcome to hell" day as the fire came out in many places north of Bairnsdale....it was 44C and blowing strong and hot from the NW. Great weather for the 700 fire fighters on the line.....not ! The smoke plume from the fire was huge, it was raining ash and burnt leaves and once it got dark the fire front was very visible from the town. The fire was spotting quite close to Eastwood on the northern fringe of residential Bairnsdale and extensive spotting south of the GAR around Sarsfield/Swan Reach where there are 100's of small residential rural blocks. Correctly fire impact warnings were issued for the coastal resorts of Metung Lakes Entrance and beyond and these all experienced fire spotting during the night....it is far from over and while it is a bit cooler today the fire is still going hard and will continue to do so for many weeks I think and only good heavy soaking rain will put it out.

When big bush fires hit settled areas this is when the s#*t really hits the fan.....this is happening right now here. I have absolutely no issues with the level of fire warnings issued here over the past 48 hours.......yep the "nodding head" public announcements on TV are a bit over the top but as for the warnings on the Vic Emergency app. and website.......current, accurate and informative. These warnings have to cater for the "lowest common denominator" too of course.......the "she'll be right mate" brigade and of course down here all these city-living tourists who don't want their annual summer holidays interrupted even if it literally kills them.

Another "day in hell" coming up today by the looks of it.....albeit it a slightly cooler one. Stay safe ! Cheers

s358

[neilmny]

It's very good to hear that locally you are getting the real deal sambar358.
It's a relief to know that should our time come we will at least get it plain and simple.
I hope we never have to find out.
Stay safe and good luck.

[sambar358]

Bit of an update.....Sunday/Monday were certainly "welcome to hell" days......the fire came out on multiple fronts north of Bairnsdale and did a lot of damage in the rural communities of Clifton Creek, Sarsfield, Tambo Upper & Nicholson. Lots of houses and sheds lost.....fencing gone and plenty of stock incinerated. 4 people currently listed as unaccounted for. Area razed by this fire is now in excess of 400,000ha. Many areas here still under threat and there are emergency warnings out for most of the area north and east of Bairnsdale still. The main front of the fire has moved-on and is now threatening communities further east....Lakes Entrance, Nowa Nowa & Orbost and while it's cooler today we are all still on high alert.

Some may have seen the plight of those at Mallacoota on the news last night with the town under threat from the Wingan fire......4000 terrified tourists and locals huddling on the foreshore being hosed down by fire crews as the fire ripped through the town destroying most of it. Malacoota is still cut-off from escape as the only road in/out is damaged and covered in fallen trees. Obviously this scenario has also been repeated up the NSW coast in many areas and all this is far from over yet.

Anyone considering a trip into any area that is fire-prone really needs to reconsider that trip......given the very dry nature of all our bush at the moment the fire risk is very high virtually everywhere. Stay safe & cheers

s358

[highercountry]

... and it goes on.
Warnings too numerous to list.
Tonight (3/01/20) fire activity is expected to increase through the night and peak in daylight hours.
Bairnsdale forecast 39, NW wind with an early afternoon change.
Reports of falling ash, hot leaves and several burning embers landing on the Bairnsdale Racecourse. I'm further East, which is a worse place to be.
God help those already affected, or about to be, and I don't mean Morrison's god.
Here we go again.

[sambar358]

Yep....round 2 starts tomorrow.....early. Just watched a warning by the Bairnsdale CFA Captain advising residents of the town of Bairnsdale (pop 24,000) that we will be under ember attack from around 3am tomorrow (Saturday) from the fire emerging from the bush 15km north of us around Bulumwaal.......the same fire that bit us on Monday night but just another leg of it. Big NW winds and 40C again ! 500,000ha razed by this monster which has been going for 6 weeks and no stopping it....further huge fires in the far East, the high country around Hotham, Dinner Plain and Anglers Rest, Buchan and north to the NSW border, Bendoc, Tubbut and over in the NE.....Bright, Mt Beauty & Corryong will get hammered tomorrow too I think. Good luck to all those in the midst of this at the moment ! Cheers

s358