Missing hiker, Howitt/Howqua area

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Re: Missing hiker, Howitt/Howqua area

Postby Heremeahappy1 » Sat 05 Dec, 2020 7:45 pm

VicPol SAR back on Howitt and Crosscut Saw with dogs on this case, during the week starting 30/11.
Cadaver dog and handler teams ferried by helicopter from Buller.
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Re: Missing hiker, Howitt/Howqua area

Postby Baeng72 » Mon 07 Dec, 2020 8:48 am

Weren't the media going on about some loner who sounded like an older version of Rambo being involved somehow in the disappearance of people in the Wonangatta area?
Seemed like a lot of nudge-nudge-wink-wink he's a serial killer, but were not going to say it on record.
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Re: Missing hiker, Howitt/Howqua area

Postby stry » Mon 07 Dec, 2020 12:00 pm

Baeng72 wrote:Weren't the media going on about some loner who sounded like an older version of Rambo being involved somehow in the disappearance of people in the Wonangatta area?
Seemed like a lot of nudge-nudge-wink-wink he's a serial killer, but were not going to say it on record.


The lazy, sensationalist, media drivel had, I thought, been debunked, but apparently not thoroughly enough. :(
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Re: Missing hiker, Howitt/Howqua area

Postby Baeng72 » Mon 07 Dec, 2020 12:05 pm

stry wrote:
Baeng72 wrote:Weren't the media going on about some loner who sounded like an older version of Rambo being involved somehow in the disappearance of people in the Wonangatta area?
Seemed like a lot of nudge-nudge-wink-wink he's a serial killer, but were not going to say it on record.


The lazy, sensationalist, media drivel had, I thought, been debunked, but apparently not thoroughly enough. :(

I didn't think it serious, just as you describe, drivel.
But I never saw a debunking, just reports in tabloids or radio from the usual suspects (crime writers/lazy media).
Just a search of 'Button man' in google seems to be all reporting the lurid story.
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Re: Missing hiker, Howitt/Howqua area

Postby Xplora » Tue 08 Dec, 2020 6:30 am

Baeng72 wrote:
stry wrote:
Baeng72 wrote:Weren't the media going on about some loner who sounded like an older version of Rambo being involved somehow in the disappearance of people in the Wonangatta area?
Seemed like a lot of nudge-nudge-wink-wink he's a serial killer, but were not going to say it on record.


The lazy, sensationalist, media drivel had, I thought, been debunked, but apparently not thoroughly enough. :(

I didn't think it serious, just as you describe, drivel.
But I never saw a debunking, just reports in tabloids or radio from the usual suspects (crime writers/lazy media).
Just a search of 'Button man' in google seems to be all reporting the lurid story.


Many media reports have indicated the button man has been ruled out as a suspect but maybe that is just missed when included in the larger story about him being a bit odd.
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Re: Missing hiker, Howitt/Howqua area

Postby Baeng72 » Tue 08 Dec, 2020 6:56 am

OK, this is something I do when I feel comfortable on a website or in groups.
I relax and I start dropping Sardonic comments, in person I seem to get askance looks or it lands and people laugh, on the net, usually misunderstood.
No socials skills, as my attempts at humour never land.
One day I'll learn (narrator - he never learnt).

So, apologies. The first comment was an attempt to mock the media's reporting.
The reports do indicate that he's not a suspect, and seem reasonably trying to exculpate, but really seem to hint at it.
But why mention it?
You only reiterate something in a mystery story to make a point about it.
It's a bit like Checkov's gun in screenwriting, you mention the gun in the first act, because it will pay off in the last act.
If the gun isn't important, you don't mention it.
They could issue a retracting in a separate story if they wanted to quash rumours, which is what they do when they fear being sued, instead the kept mentioning this guy in their reporting about missing people.
Hence my attempt at a Sardonic comment about the 'nudge-nudge, wink-wink' reporting.
With some reporting being as bold to state we're dealing with a serial killer (The Murdoch rage Herald Sun crime guy Andrew Rule? with Eddie tosser Mcquire said as much, but put in a caveat to avoid libel).

Anyway....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chekhov%27s_gun
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Re: Missing hiker, Howitt/Howqua area

Postby paidal_chalne_vala » Tue 08 Dec, 2020 7:45 am

It does strike me as being curious and odd that up to 8 people have vanished in the general vicinity in approximately 8 years or so.
Yes it is wild terrain and go ten metres into the scrub out there in the Buller/ Howitt map area and you could be anywhere however these are a most unusual set of circumstances.
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Re: Missing hiker, Howitt/Howqua area

Postby Baeng72 » Tue 08 Dec, 2020 8:40 am

paidal_chalne_vala wrote:It does strike me as being curious and odd that up to 8 people have vanished in the general vicinity in approximately 8 years or so.
Yes it is wild terrain and go ten metres into the scrub out there in the Buller/ Howitt map area and you could be anywhere however these are a most unusual set of circumstances.


At the risk of digging myself into a deeper hole...

My rule of thumb is to liberally apply Occam's razor.
The simplest explanation, the one that requires the least moving parts is the most likely.
People get lost, and die. Wild dogs clean up the mess. Little left to find.

Unusual things do happen.
It's 1 in 8 million chance to win lotto (Saturday), but it happens some weeks that someone wins.
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Re: Missing hiker, Howitt/Howqua area

Postby Lophophaps » Tue 08 Dec, 2020 8:54 am

Might it be that the relative closeness to Melbourne and popularity is reflected in the missing people rate? I have no evidence that anyone has died of thumb cuts.
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Re: Missing hiker, Howitt/Howqua area

Postby stry » Tue 08 Dec, 2020 11:10 am

Baeng72 wrote:
paidal_chalne_vala wrote:It does strike me as being curious and odd that up to 8 people have vanished in the general vicinity in approximately 8 years or so.
Yes it is wild terrain and go ten metres into the scrub out there in the Buller/ Howitt map area and you could be anywhere however these are a most unusual set of circumstances.


At the risk of digging myself into a deeper hole...

My rule of thumb is to liberally apply Occam's razor.
The simplest explanation, the one that requires the least moving parts is the most likely.
People get lost, and die. Wild dogs clean up the mess. Little left to find.

Unusual things do happen.
It's 1 in 8 million chance to win lotto (Saturday), but it happens some weeks that someone wins.


Bingo !!! :D :D Faeces occurs - nothing sinister about it.
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Re: Missing hiker, Howitt/Howqua area

Postby paidal_chalne_vala » Tue 08 Dec, 2020 5:54 pm

Lophophaps wrote:Might it be that the relative closeness to Melbourne and popularity is reflected in the missing people rate? I have no evidence that anyone has died of thumb cuts.


An aggressive form of tinea afflicting trekkers and ski tourers in the area, that must be the cause and the missing clue that links all the missing people together ;-P .
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Re: Missing hiker, Howitt/Howqua area

Postby Avatar » Wed 09 Dec, 2020 1:56 am

8 people vanishing without trace in 8 years, often in unexplained and mysterious circumstances, is of some concern.
Between early 2019 and 2020, four people have disappeared within a 37 mile (60 km) radius.
It is reasonable to expect some trace would be found for some of them.
Are there similar cases where the person or equipment was found? These may not have made the news.
If we find that say another 20 individuals died or got injured or lost in similar circumstances over the same period but full recoveries and explanations were found,
then that would make these events sit in context. But I suspect that is not the case.
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