Weather forecasting for the overland track

Discussion specifically about the Overland Track should be posted in this subforum, including side trips and the Cradle Mountain day walk area. Alternative access routes and connecting routes belong in the parent forum.
Forum rules
Overland Track App
An electronic guidebook for planning and walking the Overland Track.
Download this app for loads of information about planning, gear, food, accommodation and much more about the Overland Track.
You will also find topo maps, terrain profiles and track notes for offline use.
$10 -- Discount to $3 until December 15
Image

Weather forecasting for the overland track

Postby zac150 » Mon 07 Sep, 2015 8:27 am

I planning to walk the overland track at the end of September and I am looking for a reasonable forecasting site to assist in planning.

I know Bom has a 7 day forecast which will help closer to the time but at this stage I'm looking for a longer range forecast.

I have checked accuweather and weather watch; whilst the later has a rain chart for the region the former I can only use Strahan which I don't believe is close enough. Can any recommend a town or alternative site?

Also has anyone walked the track during this period? I keen to get an idea on the state of the track, and how busy it is during this shoulder (last week without needing a pass).

Many thanks in advance.
zac150
Athrotaxis cupressoides
Athrotaxis cupressoides
 
Posts: 120
Joined: Sun 02 May, 2010 4:57 pm
Region: Australian Capital Territory
Gender: Male

Re: Weather forecasting for the overland track

Postby weeds » Mon 07 Sep, 2015 8:57 am

Prepare for all four seasons in one day......

Friends of ours did it three Decembers ago 2012 maybe....and had sleet/snow on there first two days.
weeds
Athrotaxis cupressoides
Athrotaxis cupressoides
 
Posts: 338
Joined: Tue 31 Mar, 2015 5:29 am
Region: Queensland
Gender: Male

Re: Weather forecasting for the overland track

Postby bumpingbill » Mon 07 Sep, 2015 9:09 am

As Weeds just said, prepare for all weather.

You can get some Forecast information from these sites:

http://www.bom.gov.au/tas/forecasts/cradlevalley.shtml
http://www.bom.gov.au/tas/forecasts/new ... -hut.shtml
http://www.bom.gov.au/tas/forecasts/lakestclair.shtml

And while it's 60km away, the station at Liawenee is on a similar altitude.

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDT60801 ... 5959.shtml

As for end of September, it could be nice. It could be horrible. Same story with later months. You'll probably get some good days, and you'll probably get some bad days. :D
Last edited by bumpingbill on Mon 07 Sep, 2015 9:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
bumpingbill
Athrotaxis cupressoides
Athrotaxis cupressoides
 
Posts: 241
Joined: Tue 19 Feb, 2013 7:48 am
Region: Tasmania

Re: Weather forecasting for the overland track

Postby north-north-west » Mon 07 Sep, 2015 9:12 am

Expected the unexpected.
The one guarantee is that it will be changeable. Spring weather is always the most unsettled.

There should be rainfall graphs on the BoM site for LSC, New Pelion & Cradle Valley.
"Mit der Dummheit kämpfen Götter selbst vergebens."
User avatar
north-north-west
Lagarostrobos franklinii
Lagarostrobos franklinii
 
Posts: 15060
Joined: Thu 14 May, 2009 7:36 pm
Location: The Asylum
ASSOCIATED ORGANISATIONS: Social Misfits Anonymous
Region: Tasmania

Re: Weather forecasting for the overland track

Postby zac150 » Mon 07 Sep, 2015 9:21 am

Thanks Weeds, we are anticipating the worst, snow, wind, rain, sunshine etc etc but I always like to know before hand what we are in for so we can look at possible side trips etc, leaving time, and if to pack lunch's etc that can be consumed in the rain (soups).

We had a situation recently where we knew the rain would hit at around 1:30 so left extra early and walked hard all morning and beat the rain, not that I have an issue walking in the rain but if we can avoid the worst of it, always better.

Thanks bumpingbill. I'll keep those sites for closer to the time.
zac150
Athrotaxis cupressoides
Athrotaxis cupressoides
 
Posts: 120
Joined: Sun 02 May, 2010 4:57 pm
Region: Australian Capital Territory
Gender: Male

Re: Weather forecasting for the overland track

Postby South_Aussie_Hiker » Mon 07 Sep, 2015 10:10 am

You need to be wary of seven day forecasts, particularly in spring. Spring weather tends to be more unstable and variable, with a higher degree of forecasting inaccuracy beyond three to four days.

It might be nice to have a rough idea which days might be better for planning of side trips, but you need to be fully gear prepared for everything from sunshine to storms and snow.
User avatar
South_Aussie_Hiker
Phyllocladus aspleniifolius
Phyllocladus aspleniifolius
 
Posts: 930
Joined: Tue 22 Feb, 2011 9:24 pm
Region: South Australia
Gender: Male

Re: Weather forecasting for the overland track

Postby aloftas » Mon 28 Sep, 2015 11:03 am

I came across this in my net wanderings...

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wi ... ectangular
aloftas
Athrotaxis cupressoides
Athrotaxis cupressoides
 
Posts: 311
Joined: Fri 04 Jan, 2013 9:44 am
Region: Tasmania
Gender: Male

Re: Weather forecasting for the overland track

Postby PatAries1971 » Mon 28 Sep, 2015 1:19 pm

Hi,
We did walked the OLT in mid August.

We used this site this reference is for Cradle Mtn (high):
http://www.yr.no/place/Australia/Tasman ... /long.html

If you search Cradle, Ossa, Pelion, Lake St Clair, even Du Cane from memory, they all have forecasts. We found the long distance forecast 100% spot on for our time there.
PatAries1971
Nothofagus gunnii
Nothofagus gunnii
 
Posts: 10
Joined: Wed 03 Jul, 2013 2:51 pm
Region: New South Wales
Gender: Male

Re: Weather forecasting for the overland track

Postby Azza » Tue 29 Sep, 2015 3:08 pm

South_Aussie_Hiker wrote:You need to be wary of seven day forecasts, particularly in spring. Spring weather tends to be more unstable and variable, with a higher degree of forecasting inaccuracy beyond three to four days.


Agree entirely..
The west coast of Tasmania is sitting smack bang in the path of the roaring 40's.. any ideas that long range weather forecasts are reliable beyond a few days to a week is folly..
Sure you can say well there is an increased change of a rainy/windy/dry spell something next week or the week after +/- a few days either side.
Particularly in spring it follows a pattern of a couple of good days, then a few bad days.. repeat over and over.

So you can probably expect a couple of good days, a couple of bad days... if you get lucky you might get a week of awesome weather, or it could rain and blow for the entire time.
User avatar
Azza
Phyllocladus aspleniifolius
Phyllocladus aspleniifolius
 
Posts: 980
Joined: Thu 06 Mar, 2008 11:26 am

Re: Weather forecasting for the overland track

Postby South_Aussie_Hiker » Tue 29 Sep, 2015 7:49 pm

Met was one of the most interesting subjects I did at uni. At the time, the BOM had just moved from 4 to 5 day forecasts for capital cities.
I vaguely remember that each day beyond 4 days was something like 4x harder in magnitude to forecast to within a required accuracy. It made the 7th day forecast some 64x more difficult than the 4th day.

Didn't help yesterday. Storms that crossed over the NW coast of TAS last night weren't forecast just three hours earlier! Beat the storms in by about 10 mins :)
User avatar
South_Aussie_Hiker
Phyllocladus aspleniifolius
Phyllocladus aspleniifolius
 
Posts: 930
Joined: Tue 22 Feb, 2011 9:24 pm
Region: South Australia
Gender: Male

Re: Weather forecasting for the overland track

Postby Nuts » Wed 30 Sep, 2015 6:47 am

I'd agree, accurate for a few days, far more accurate than in the past however. On the Overland Track it only matters a few days out, not as if anyone would wait more than a day or so due to bad weather and once started you are largely committed, especially if paid. All the extrapolations just come from the same data sets so i don't think the chosen source makes much of a difference, though some do make the forecast easier to visualize.
User avatar
Nuts
Lagarostrobos franklinii
Lagarostrobos franklinii
 
Posts: 8630
Joined: Sat 05 Apr, 2008 12:22 pm
Region: Tasmania

Re: Weather forecasting for the overland track

Postby bearded bushwalker » Fri 30 Oct, 2015 3:02 pm

Just use the standard Tassie forecast.
Fine all week, pouring rain on the weekends!

BTW this forecasting system works for me anywhere I seem to go on the weekends.
bearded bushwalker

Be yourself, there is nobody better qualified.
bearded bushwalker
Nothofagus gunnii
Nothofagus gunnii
 
Posts: 40
Joined: Thu 09 Dec, 2010 3:56 pm
Region: Queensland
Gender: Male

Re: Weather forecasting for the overland track

Postby Genesis » Fri 30 Oct, 2015 7:33 pm

bearded bushwalker wrote:Just use the standard Tassie forecast.
Fine all week, pouring rain on the weekends!

BTW this forecasting system works for me anywhere I seem to go on the weekends.


Classic, so this is not just a Tassie thing ?
Genesis
Athrotaxis cupressoides
Athrotaxis cupressoides
 
Posts: 224
Joined: Thu 30 Oct, 2008 1:52 pm
Location: Wynyard, Tasmania
Region: Tasmania
Gender: Male


Return to Overland Track and Cradle Mountain

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 11 guests