tom_brennan wrote:johnf wrote:I don't think the ordinary person can grasp the evaluation of risk for rare events.
At this point in time I would say the risk of being burnt alive cooped up in your home, far far exceeds the chances of spreading COVID-19 to a rescuer in a bushwalking situation.
At present with the level of testing and contact tracing that has been done, they chance of someone having COVID in Australia is probably less than 1 in 10000. The chance of needing rescue might be 1 in 100,000.
The chance of both happening would be less than 1 in a billion.
Not sure you're thinking about the maths in the right way. You might be able to use the logic above for yourself (or another specific person), but you need to multiply it out across the entire community.
The risk is not just about the person being rescued, it's the fact that you have to bring rescue teams together, potentially putting them in close proximity. And there won't just be one rescue, there'll be many. Blue Mountains Police Rescue alone attended 900 jobs last year. I'm sure many of these were minor, but you get the idea. These factors compound quickly.
What John's maths have not taken into account is the lag between infection and symptoms and the exponential nature of infections. I have mentioned this before but it is worth repeating. The reasons not to leave your home to go bushwalking in a place distant from your home are:
1. You risk interacting with others (i.e petrol station supermarket etc) and this raises the risk of local transmission in a rural or regional area which has less resources to deal with the very sick.
2. you may start your trip being infected but asymptomatic, you may get sick on your walk and then end up in a regional hospital that has the potential to be overwhelmed. This means that you may not get treated and end up in the ward (or tent) awaiting a ventilator. If you were lucky enough to get the right treatment this would also mean that you have taken up a bed needlessly. These beds are finite. the modelling done at the start of the epidemic showed that some regional ICUs were expecting 5 times the number of critical patients than the capacity of their ICU
every day. A patient on a ventilator could expect to be treated for a number of days which means that by the end of a week an 8 bed ICU could have 250+ severely ill patients in the hospital grounds awaiting treatment. Get the picture?
Some regional areas have no cases of Covid-19 at all and, thankfully, their regional ICUs can expect no surge. If one bushwalker was to travel to this area and infect one or more people this can rapidly change.
3. You may get injured on your walk and require retrieval, stretching resources committed to hospital transfer and exposing you , and your rescuers, to transmission as they must work in close proximity during evacuation. These rescuers may get sick which even if they survive (which is likely) takes them out of commission for two or more weeks. Rescuers are a finite resource, especially in rural areas where paramedics and volunteers don't grow on trees. Can an accident not happen to you? I have seen several experienced bushwalkers with non-serious injuries requiring extraction.
As of Apr 7 these risks are much lower as transmission rates have slowed. But, as a nurse in a regional area i ask you to consider others and to rethink the 'can't happen to me' attitude