wayno wrote:wind conditions on a hill climb will be variable if you are switching back and forward up a slope the wind will change, air turbulence up a mountainside, i have doubts about the accuracy of the calculations...
Yes but they know the conditions, they've been doing the same climbs for 100 years now. He's basing his calculations on well known parts of the tour, not new ones. For the wind conditions, they apply an average. The wind doesn't change direction every 10 sec, and air turbulence is maximum at an edge, not on a flank. It could be great at the end of the climb, but not during the climb. So at best, in some cases you could lose some precision, but it wouldn't affect general tendencies. After all, this method shows that confessed cheaters DO produce superhuman powers. To have the method overestimates power (hence calling a cheater somebody who isn't), you'd need the guy to have suddenly a huge back wind helping him forward, or great drafting from a rider in front of him, while you thought in your calculations that there was facing wind and no drafting. But if you had a wind like this you could clearly see it and it would be recorded, and drafting from a rider would be, well, shot by the cameras, and the method can easily take drafting into account. My guess is, if by chance there were so much turbulence on day, such as in a storm, and if by chance the race did take place, they wouldn't bother to calculate powers that could prove wrong anyway.