It's so variable on a number of things so it's hard to say.
-10 sounds pretty solid, though you are planning on being in a light tent, so better to have it and not need it, than to not have it and need it.
It depends on how you sleep too - whether you sleep warm, whether you are prepared to open the bag and use it like a doona wrapped around you if too warm, whether you will have enough dry layers that you can use at night if you take a less warm bag, how good your sleeping mat is.
The track is fairly high in altitude as well, another consideration.
The two areas of recorded data for weather atr at Waldheim near Cradle to the north, and Lake St Clair to the south.
You really should be prepared to cope with the worst of it, not the average...
HERE is the historical weather for Lake St Clair, November 2008.
HERE is the historical weather for Lake St Clair, December 2008.
HERE is the historical data for Lake St Clair
HERE is the historical data for Waldheim.