Weather forecasting for the overland track

Discussion specifically about the Overland Track should be posted in this subforum, including side trips and the Cradle Mountain day walk area. Alternative access routes and connecting routes belong in the parent forum.

Weather forecasting for the overland track

Postby zac150 » Mon 07 Sep, 2015 8:27 am

I planning to walk the overland track at the end of September and I am looking for a reasonable forecasting site to assist in planning.

I know Bom has a 7 day forecast which will help closer to the time but at this stage I'm looking for a longer range forecast.

I have checked accuweather and weather watch; whilst the later has a rain chart for the region the former I can only use Strahan which I don't believe is close enough. Can any recommend a town or alternative site?

Also has anyone walked the track during this period? I keen to get an idea on the state of the track, and how busy it is during this shoulder (last week without needing a pass).

Many thanks in advance.
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Re: Weather forecasting for the overland track

Postby weeds » Mon 07 Sep, 2015 8:57 am

Prepare for all four seasons in one day......

Friends of ours did it three Decembers ago 2012 maybe....and had sleet/snow on there first two days.
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Re: Weather forecasting for the overland track

Postby bumpingbill » Mon 07 Sep, 2015 9:09 am

As Weeds just said, prepare for all weather.

You can get some Forecast information from these sites:

http://www.bom.gov.au/tas/forecasts/cradlevalley.shtml
http://www.bom.gov.au/tas/forecasts/new ... -hut.shtml
http://www.bom.gov.au/tas/forecasts/lakestclair.shtml

And while it's 60km away, the station at Liawenee is on a similar altitude.

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDT60801 ... 5959.shtml

As for end of September, it could be nice. It could be horrible. Same story with later months. You'll probably get some good days, and you'll probably get some bad days. :D
Last edited by bumpingbill on Mon 07 Sep, 2015 9:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Weather forecasting for the overland track

Postby north-north-west » Mon 07 Sep, 2015 9:12 am

Expected the unexpected.
The one guarantee is that it will be changeable. Spring weather is always the most unsettled.

There should be rainfall graphs on the BoM site for LSC, New Pelion & Cradle Valley.
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Re: Weather forecasting for the overland track

Postby zac150 » Mon 07 Sep, 2015 9:21 am

Thanks Weeds, we are anticipating the worst, snow, wind, rain, sunshine etc etc but I always like to know before hand what we are in for so we can look at possible side trips etc, leaving time, and if to pack lunch's etc that can be consumed in the rain (soups).

We had a situation recently where we knew the rain would hit at around 1:30 so left extra early and walked hard all morning and beat the rain, not that I have an issue walking in the rain but if we can avoid the worst of it, always better.

Thanks bumpingbill. I'll keep those sites for closer to the time.
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Re: Weather forecasting for the overland track

Postby South_Aussie_Hiker » Mon 07 Sep, 2015 10:10 am

You need to be wary of seven day forecasts, particularly in spring. Spring weather tends to be more unstable and variable, with a higher degree of forecasting inaccuracy beyond three to four days.

It might be nice to have a rough idea which days might be better for planning of side trips, but you need to be fully gear prepared for everything from sunshine to storms and snow.
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Re: Weather forecasting for the overland track

Postby aloftas » Mon 28 Sep, 2015 11:03 am

I came across this in my net wanderings...

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wi ... ectangular
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Re: Weather forecasting for the overland track

Postby PatAries1971 » Mon 28 Sep, 2015 1:19 pm

Hi,
We did walked the OLT in mid August.

We used this site this reference is for Cradle Mtn (high):
http://www.yr.no/place/Australia/Tasman ... /long.html

If you search Cradle, Ossa, Pelion, Lake St Clair, even Du Cane from memory, they all have forecasts. We found the long distance forecast 100% spot on for our time there.
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Re: Weather forecasting for the overland track

Postby Azza » Tue 29 Sep, 2015 3:08 pm

South_Aussie_Hiker wrote:You need to be wary of seven day forecasts, particularly in spring. Spring weather tends to be more unstable and variable, with a higher degree of forecasting inaccuracy beyond three to four days.


Agree entirely..
The west coast of Tasmania is sitting smack bang in the path of the roaring 40's.. any ideas that long range weather forecasts are reliable beyond a few days to a week is folly..
Sure you can say well there is an increased change of a rainy/windy/dry spell something next week or the week after +/- a few days either side.
Particularly in spring it follows a pattern of a couple of good days, then a few bad days.. repeat over and over.

So you can probably expect a couple of good days, a couple of bad days... if you get lucky you might get a week of awesome weather, or it could rain and blow for the entire time.
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Re: Weather forecasting for the overland track

Postby South_Aussie_Hiker » Tue 29 Sep, 2015 7:49 pm

Met was one of the most interesting subjects I did at uni. At the time, the BOM had just moved from 4 to 5 day forecasts for capital cities.
I vaguely remember that each day beyond 4 days was something like 4x harder in magnitude to forecast to within a required accuracy. It made the 7th day forecast some 64x more difficult than the 4th day.

Didn't help yesterday. Storms that crossed over the NW coast of TAS last night weren't forecast just three hours earlier! Beat the storms in by about 10 mins :)
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Re: Weather forecasting for the overland track

Postby Nuts » Wed 30 Sep, 2015 6:47 am

I'd agree, accurate for a few days, far more accurate than in the past however. On the Overland Track it only matters a few days out, not as if anyone would wait more than a day or so due to bad weather and once started you are largely committed, especially if paid. All the extrapolations just come from the same data sets so i don't think the chosen source makes much of a difference, though some do make the forecast easier to visualize.
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Re: Weather forecasting for the overland track

Postby bearded bushwalker » Fri 30 Oct, 2015 3:02 pm

Just use the standard Tassie forecast.
Fine all week, pouring rain on the weekends!

BTW this forecasting system works for me anywhere I seem to go on the weekends.
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Re: Weather forecasting for the overland track

Postby Genesis » Fri 30 Oct, 2015 7:33 pm

bearded bushwalker wrote:Just use the standard Tassie forecast.
Fine all week, pouring rain on the weekends!

BTW this forecasting system works for me anywhere I seem to go on the weekends.


Classic, so this is not just a Tassie thing ?
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