Geomagnetic weather reports for GPS.

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Geomagnetic weather reports for GPS.

Postby Zone-5 » Wed 29 Jan, 2014 12:41 pm

Geomagnetic weather reports for GPS.

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These reports of particle and radio transmissions from the Sun are important so you can understand how they affect satellite radio communications to your hand-held GPS. Predictions of future radio interference activities may interest some users of satellite technologies.


Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/weekly/WKHF.txt

Space Weather
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SWN/index.html
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/ind ... oBlackouts
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/ind ... tionStorms
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/ind ... eticStorms

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GPS fully explained:
http://www.kowoma.de/en/gps/index.htm

Space weather report request's are welcomed...

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:Product: SWPC Space Weather Alerts ALTS.txt
:Issued: 2014 Jan 29 0218 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# See http://swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/ for description and other displays
# Send comments and suggestions to SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov
#
# SWPC Space Weather Alerts Issued in the last 24 hours
#---------------------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 606
Issue Time: 2014 Jan 28 1952 UTC

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2014 Jan 28 1936 UTC
Maximum Time: 2014 Jan 28 1936 UTC
End Time: 2014 Jan 28 1938 UTC
Duration: 2 minutes
Peak Flux: 1700 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 144 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

#-------------------------------------------------

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2014 Jan 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 28 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jan 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
27/2210Z from Region 1967 (S14E76). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(29 Jan, 30 Jan, 31 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 421 km/s at
28/2046Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 28/1800Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -7 nT at 28/1603Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (29 Jan), quiet to active
levels on day two (30 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (31 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jan 157
Predicted 29 Jan-31 Jan 165/170/175
90 Day Mean 28 Jan 151

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jan 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jan 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan 007/010-012/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/30/15
Minor Storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 25/40/25

----------------------------------------

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary
:Issued: 2014 Jan 28 0245 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary
SGAS Number 028 Issued at 0245Z on 28 Jan 2014
This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 27 Jan
A. Energetic Events
Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep
0202 0211 0218 1967 M1.1
2205 2210 2215 1967 M4.9
B. Proton Events: None
C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: Quiet.
D. Stratwarm: Not Available
E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values)
10 cm 144 SSN 062 Afr/Ap 003/002 X-ray Background C1.2
Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs)
GT 1 MeV 1.6e+05 GT 10 MeV 1.0e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day)
(GOES-13 satellite synchronous orbit W74 degrees)
Daily Electron Fluence
GT 2 MeV 1.80e+06 e/(cm2-ster-day)
(GOES-13 satellite synchronous orbit W74 degrees)
3 Hour K-indices:
Boulder 1 1 1 0 1 2 2 1 Planetary 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1
F. Comments: None

------------------------------------

:Product: Solar Region Summary
:Issued: 2014 Jan 29 0030 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 29 Issued at 0030Z on 29 Jan 2014
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 28 Jan
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 28/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1959 S25W59 239 0140 Cso 10 06 Beta
1960 S16W56 236 0090 Dai 04 06 Beta
1967 S12E67 113 0580 Eki 15 13 Beta-Gamma
1968 N10E65 115 0100 Eao 12 05 Beta
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 28/2400Z Jan
Nmbr Location Lo
1958 S08W73 254
1963 S18W40 220
1964 S09W35 219
1965 S14W24 205
1966 S12W15 196
II. Regions Due to Return 29 Jan to 31 Jan
Nmbr Lat Lo
1948 N06 066

----------------------------------------

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2014 Jan 27 0540 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
20 - 26 January 2014

Solar activity was at very low to low levels during the period. The
week began with five C-class events on 20 January, four of which
were produced by Region 1959 (S24, L=239, class/area Eai/220 on 21
January). The largest flare of that day, and the first six days of
the period, however, was a C3/Sf produced by Region 1963 (S06,
L=216, class/area Cso/060 on 21 January) at 20/2249 UTC. From 21-25
January, only five C1 to C2 class flares were observed while very
low levels were observed on 23 January. January 26th brought an
increase in activity when a C6 event was observed at 26/1013 UTC
from Region 1960 (S15, L=238, class/area Hkx/270 on 22 January). A
C3 x-ray event was observed earlier at 26/0616 UTC from behind the
NE limb and shortly after, a C1 x-ray event was observed at 26/0838
UTC from behind the SE limb. Associated with the C1 event were Type
II (839 km/s) and 10cm (200 sfu) radio signatures. The activity from
behind the east limb appeared to originate in the vicinity of old
Regions 1946 (N09, L=103) and 1944 (S09, L=101).

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels. Moderate levels were observed on 20
January.

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The period
began with solar wind speeds near 300 km/s and total field
measurements around 4 nT. Subsequently, the geomagnetic field was at
quiet levels on 20 January. By 21 January, total field began to
increase to a maximum of 487 km/s while the Bz component fluctuated
between +/- 6 nT. Solar wind speed increased to a maximum of 605
km/s at 22/0846 UTC as a positive polarity coronal hole high speed
stream became geoeffective. The geomagnetic field responded with
quiet to unsettled conditions on 21 and 22 January. Solar wind speed
declined to background levels by 24 January resulting in mostly
quiet conditions with isolated unsettled levels from 23 January
through the end of the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
27 January - 22 February 2014

Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels overall.
Moderate to high levels are possible from 27 January through 09
February with the return of old Regions 1946 and 1944.

The greater than 10 MeV particle flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to remain at background levels during the forecast period.
The threat of a solar energetic particle event is expected to be
greatest between 03-10 February as old Region 1944 crosses the
central meridian into a more potentially geoeffective position.

The greater than 2 MeV particle flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at low to moderate levels through most of the period,
with the exception of 03-05 February when a chance for high levels
are expected due to recurrence.

The geomagnetic field is expected to begin the period at quiet to
unsettled levels, with a chance for active periods on 27-28 January,
in response to a small coronal hole high speed stream. By 29
January, a return to mostly quiet conditions is expected. Recurrent
high speed solar wind streams are expected to bring unsettled
conditions with a chance for active levels on 07-08 February and
17-18 February. Mostly quiet conditions are expected to prevail for
the remainder of the period in the absence of transient features.



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Re: Geomagnetic weather reports for GPS.

Postby Zone-5 » Sun 09 Nov, 2014 8:07 am

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